Three Views About the Prediction of Rebound

2020-02-18 10:53 WBO GLOBAL

Recently, WBO found that some people in the industry predicted a wave of retaliatory rebound after the Coronal virus. 

Some wine merchants said: "There must be a wave of retaliatory rebound after the epidemic."

Jinsong Zhou, executive chairman of the Sichuan Wine and Fruit Liquor Industry Association, believes that there must be a rebound after the Corona virus epidemic. He pointed out: After the epidemic, the suppressed consumption demand for the Spring Festival will surely in a "revenge" growth. According to the situation after the SARS in 2003, it is estimated that the HORECA industry had a half-month retaliatory consumption period, and the consumption may reach 1.5-2 times the previous year. Wine industry will benefit from it as well.

Ruidong Chen, general manager of Chengdu Liangjiu Wine Cellar, held a similar view. "Retaliation consumption is normal. After all, everyone is going crazy staying alone.This time the depression is even more severe than SARS." He said.

Ruidong Chen believes that after the epidemic, no matter what kind of channel, as long as it has a good sales ability and maintained a good sustainability, it can get someprofit.

Some wine merchants believe that there will be some recovery

However, Pengxuan Dai, the general manager of Hangzhou Zheyuan International Trade Company, holds a slightly different view. He pointed out that there must be a rebound in consumption, but not necessarily a large one. First of all, it is very important to consider how the epidemic situation ends and whether it goes away completely. Secondly, even if the epidemic situation ends, there will be still some considerations about previous  gatherings and activities. The rebound is unrealistic.

Talking about what kind of channels will benefit from the rebound, PengxuanDai pointed out: I think the first is the group purchase channel with solid customer resources, and the second is the new retail channel such as online live broadcast. Enterprises with new retail channels will benefit a lot. However, traditional channels are difficult to meet the needs of sales. Therefore, companies should pay attention to the construction and development of new retail channels.

Wei Wang, general manager of Shanghai Borui Wines, who has been in the wine industry for more than 20 years, also pointed out that there may be some recoveryafter the epidemic, but only for a short period. There was no upward trend in wine industryafter the SARS period in 2003. Instead, it was only after 2007 that wine entered a golden stage of growth.

Shifang Guo, founder of Inner Mongolia Xinliuhe Commerce, told WBO that rebound growth does exist after the epidemic, but the growth rate will not exceed previous years. The monthly sales may still be in a low level compare to historical data.

Different opinions: "the probability of a retaliatory rebound is very low"

Nevertheless, during the interview, many wine merchants did not think there will be a so-called rebound. Liang Zou, a Hunan wine merchant, points out that retaliatory rebound is more of a desire. After the disaster, people will celebrate with each other and cherish the life. There will be gatherings after a long absence, but no more than under normal circumstances.When you have a lot of fear, there will be concerns about gatherings and drinking too much. Everyone will shift to how to make money.

Yuangang Zhai, general manager of Sichuan Xuanyi International Liquor Company, also thinks the rebound is not optimistic. "After the epidemic , people will gradually return to normal life and work after get relaxed." He said.

Youjin Chen, the founder of Wenzhou Puye Technology, also believes that people will focus on their work first. He said: The possibility of a retaliatory rebound is very low. After the stagnation period from January to February, everyone is busy going back to work. Parties and banquets are unlikely to become the major tone. Without such scenarios, the possibility of rebound in consumption would not be too high.

Mr. Gu from Shandong Dongying Wine Company believes that it is optimistic to return to normal situation in June. It is possible that people tend not to gather and party whenever possible. They will try to avoid less important gatherings.

Dehui Wang,the founder of Shenzhen Zhide Marketing Company, also pointed out that it will take some time for the epidemic to be resolved. Even afterwards, the government and citizens will worry about the recurrence of the epidemic, so it will still take some time to recover. I don't think the market will pick up after the long depression. At mostsome jobs will return to normal. People will not gather and drink crazily because of staying alone for too long.They will be more cautious instead.

Guomin Ma, founder of Shanghai Jiulaoban, pointed out that the outbreak of the epidemic may even be severe for some wine merchants with poor management and tight capital flow. Therefore, for wine merchants who are relatively mature in all aspects, there will not be a benign rebound in a short period of time, but it is positive for them in the medium and long term, which will increase the concentration of the industry and benefit the structure.